Bitcoin fell below 80,000 USD on 26 October, dipping to around 79,300 USD at one point, as investors cut exposure to risky assets ahead of the US Federal Reserve's 27-28 October policy meeting, VietnamPlus and VnExpress reported. Gold moved the other way: at 12:44 Vietnam time on 26 October, spot gold was up 0.4% at 4,010.51 USD an ounce after touching its lowest level since mid-July in the previous session, according to VietnamPlus. Major US financial institutions broadly expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at this meeting.
What the forecasters expect
According to VietnamPlus, the big US institutions see the Fed holding at the 27-28 October meeting before weighing another hike in December to tame inflation that is still above the central bank's 2% target.
| Forecaster | 27-28 October meeting | December |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs Investment Research | Likely hold | Possible 0.25 percentage point hike |
| JPMorgan (economist Michael Feroli) | Hold | Possible one more hike |
| Survey of 100 economists (16-20 October) | 94 expect a hold at 3.75-4.00% | All 100 expect a hike |
VietnamPlus said the survey marked a significant shift from a month earlier, when fewer than half of respondents expected another hike by the end of the year. Nearly 60% see rates peaking in a 4.00-4.25% range, and 38 of the 92 who answered the question on the rate outlook think the Fed may need at least two more hikes. Persistent inflation, higher energy costs from the conflict with Iran and tariffs are putting pressure on prices while the US economy keeps growing. CME's FedWatch tool put the probability of a December hike at 77%.
Why bitcoin slipped
Investors pulled 772.4 million USD from US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds on 22 and 23 October, a sharp reversal from more than 1 billion USD of net inflows earlier that week, VietnamPlus reported. Markets are also uneasy about huge spending on artificial intelligence (AI) and are waiting for earnings from the big technology groups.
VnExpress, citing CoinDesk, pointed to a sell-off in Asian technology shares linked to money leaving AI names. South Korea's Kospi fell 1% after Goldman Sachs strategists cut their 12-month target for the index by 25%. Other major tokens also fell: ether lost nearly 3% to just over 2,300 USD, XRP dropped about 3% to 1.28 USD and solana slipped 2% to around 100 USD.
Pratik Kala, a portfolio manager at Australian crypto hedge fund Apollo Crypto, said many systematic funds and algorithmic traders still treat bitcoin as an asset to sell when risk aversion rises, according to VietnamPlus. Jeff Mei, chief operating officer of crypto exchange BTSE, was cited by VnExpress as saying the Fed would probably leave rates unchanged, but that what mattered for crypto was how strongly the Fed chair signals a possible December hike. He added that record oil prices, the escalating US-Iran conflict and inflation could push the Fed towards a tougher message, meaning higher rates and less liquidity for crypto and stocks.
Gold rebounds as oil cools
Gold lost 4% in the week to 23 October, its steepest weekly fall since June, VietnamPlus reported. The 26 October rebound came as lower oil prices eased inflation worries. Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, said the gain was mainly down to cheaper oil but could easily be capped while markets wait for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, and that gold will keep moving with rate expectations and geopolitical risk.
| Precious metal | Spot price on 26 October | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,010.51 USD/ounce | Up 0.4% |
| Silver | 54.19 USD/ounce | Up 0.6% |
| Platinum | 1,548.30 USD/ounce | Down 0.2% |
| Palladium | 1,046.25 USD/ounce | Up 0.2% |
In Vietnam, Saigon Jewelry Company listed SJC gold in Hanoi at 138.7-141.7 million dong per tael (buying-selling) on the afternoon of 26 October, according to VietnamPlus.
What's next
The Fed is due to announce its decision on Wednesday, 28 October. Investors will watch the policy statement and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference for signals on a December hike and on the policy outlook for 2027. US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the gauge the Fed watches against its 2% inflation target, is due one day after the meeting ends. For bitcoin, CoinDesk analysts cited by VnExpress say the coin needs to regain 82,500 USD, a support level lost at the end of the week before 26 October, for buyers to treat the latest drop as a temporary correction. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, said the market is focused on the Fed meeting and then on the US midterm elections, VietnamPlus reported.