Bournemouth have followed a three-point start from six Premier League games with six consecutive wins in all competitions. An Opta Analyst article published by The Guardian examines the turnaround through results, chance quality and Marco Rose's response to early difficulties.
Three league victories in that run lifted Bournemouth to eighth at the article's cut-off.
Early results lagged behind the model
Bournemouth began with three draws and three defeats. They lost 2-1 to Manchester City after leading until the 84th minute and conceded late equalisers against Everton and Newcastle.
Opta Analyst says they produced more expected goals than their opponents in four of those opening six games. Its expected-points model assigned them 8.4 points over that period, compared with the three they actually earned.
The 5-1 Chelsea defeat was especially stark: the article records 1.1 expected goals for Chelsea and 1.38 for Bournemouth. Those figures describe chances through the model rather than changing the result.
Wins reshape the outlook
The subsequent victories came against Sturm Graz and Milan in Europe, Aston Villa in the League Cup, and Sunderland, Manchester United and Leeds in the league.
Across the six wins, Bournemouth scored 16 goals from 16.4 expected goals and allowed chances worth an average of 0.81 per match. Evanilson scored in his last four league appearances.
Over the season covered, Bournemouth's 15.4 expected points trailed only Arsenal's 18.2, Manchester City's 17.1 and Nottingham Forest's 15.5 in the model. They approach the next fixtures from eighth in the actual table after a substantial change in results.