Coffee futures advanced for a second consecutive session on October 19, according to an October 20 report by the Vietnamese government newspaper. December Arabica rose 3.3% to USD 6,960 per tonne, while November Robusta gained more than 2% to USD 3,484. Concern about weather in major producing countries supported the move.
Rain threatens quality in South America
The US Climate Prediction Center's October 15 seasonal outlook put the probability of El Niño remaining at least strong through January–March 2027 at about 80%, the report said. Its possible effects differ by region, with heavy rainfall threatening parts of South America while Southeast Asia faces drought risks.
Brazil's INMET forecast substantial rain in parts of Paraná, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. The report also cited market information about Brazilian coffee failing quality assessments on October 16. In Colombia, persistent rainfall was complicating harvesting and drying, while high temperatures increased concerns about coffee berry borers.
Irrigation constraints remain a concern
Vietnam could face drought late this year and early in 2027. Forecast river-flow deficits in some basins range from 15% to 78% against long-term averages. Only about 27% of the Central Highlands' coffee area receives controlled irrigation from water infrastructure. Indonesia also faces a delayed rainy season and possible soil-moisture shortages.
Certified ICE Arabica stocks were near 240,000 bags, but Robusta inventories had reached their highest level in more than 11 months. SACT executive Trần Sơn Tùng therefore warned that prices could still undergo corrections. The quoted contracts are historical closing prices; projected weather effects do not establish future harvest losses or guarantee further gains.