Oil prices rose more than 1% on 28 October. At 14:47 Vietnam time, Brent futures were up 2.1 USD, or 1.84%, at 115.98 USD a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 2.1 USD, or 2.1%, to 102 USD a barrel, VietnamPlus reported. The rise followed an attack on a refinery in Saudi Arabia that revived fears about supply from the largest oil exporter in the world. It reversed the previous session, when prices fell by nearly 2 USD.
| Crude | Gain | Price at 14:47 on 28 October |
|---|---|---|
| Brent futures | 2.1 USD (1.84%) | 115.98 USD a barrel |
| WTI | 2.1 USD (2.1%) | 102 USD a barrel |
The trigger: tension around Saudi Arabia and Iran
On 27 October, the Houthi movement in Yemen said it had carried out a military operation against the largest refinery in Saudi Arabia, the second-biggest crude producer in the world. VietnamPlus described it as an escalation in the group's attacks on the kingdom.
Analysts at ING, cited by VietnamPlus, said prices still reflected a high probability of a new round of escalation. The bank's strategists said prices were holding at high levels while the market waited for clearer signals on the next steps of US President Donald Trump towards Iran. They suggested that if the US election period passes without new air strikes on Iran, that alone could be enough to cool prices.
Other supply and demand factors
Beyond geopolitical risk, VietnamPlus pointed to three other factors:
- US inventories: according to the American Petroleum Institute (API), US crude stocks fell by 2.03 million barrels in the week ending 23 October.
- OPEC+: the market is waiting for the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, which sources expect to keep output targets for December unchanged.
- Russia: traders said Russian crude exports from Baltic and Black Sea ports could fall in November, as Russian refiners increase diesel output after a deal reached with the United States in early October.
Timeline
Milestones compiled by KBVN+ from the VietnamPlus report:
| Date | Development |
|---|---|
| Early October | Russia reaches a deal with the United States; Russian refiners later raise diesel output |
| Week ending 23 October | US crude stocks fall 2.03 million barrels, according to API |
| 27 October | Houthis say they attacked the largest refinery in Saudi Arabia |
| Session before 28 October | Oil falls by nearly 2 USD |
| 14:47 on 28 October | Brent at 115.98 USD a barrel, WTI at 102 USD |
| November | Russian crude exports from Baltic and Black Sea ports may fall |
| December | OPEC+ expected to keep output targets unchanged |
What comes next
The oil market will be watching the December output decision of OPEC+, security around Saudi oil facilities and US moves on Iran during the election period. In the view of ING, as reported by VietnamPlus, the upward pressure on prices could ease if there are no new air strikes on Iran.