Erling Haaland's ability to remain onside is examined through an xOffside model in an ESPN analysis reported by VnExpress on October 16. The approach considers the situations a player faces rather than simply counting offside calls.
Why raw totals are incomplete
Strikers, midfielders and wingers receive different passes and make different movements near the defensive line. Identical totals therefore do not establish identical positioning skill.
xOffside assesses factors including location, distance, speed, trajectory and tactical context. Long passes, passing angles and the opponent's decision to step forward can affect estimated risk.
Player roles also require adjustment: arriving from deeper positions differs from a centre-forward repeatedly operating close to the last defender.
Estimated benefits and remaining limitations
The analysis gives Morgan Rogers two open-play offsides over more than three seasons against an expected 18.3. Rogers and Haaland belong to a group of at least nine players assessed as better than average with relatively high confidence. Small samples still introduce uncertainty.
For Haaland, the estimated benefit is 0.63 additional goals per season. The article converts that into approximately US$7.5 million using assumptions about wages and goal difference. It is an analytical valuation, not revenue received by Manchester City.
The model cannot fully capture space created by a forward, decoy runs or movements that force defenders backwards. Those remain relevant despite being harder to quantify.
xOffside therefore adds another perspective on positioning, supporting rather than replacing tactical observation. Its estimates do not guarantee future goals or financial returns.