September trade expands in both directions

The report said September exports rose by more than 36% from a year earlier, their strongest growth since February. Imports increased 31%, exceeding the economists' forecast cited in the article.

International demand was described as an important counterweight to uneven domestic consumption. Producer prices also rose at their fastest pace in four years, while consumer-price growth was modest and below expectations. Those indicators cover different parts of the economy and do not demonstrate a uniform recovery in household demand.

Policy risks remain for the final quarter

Analysts cited in the report said planned EU restrictions on hybrid vehicles could put pressure on Chinese carmakers. With details expected in December, some producers were accelerating shipments before that point. That is an assessment of exporters' behaviour, not evidence that the proposed measures have already taken full effect.

The article also noted the extension of a US–China trade truce after the previous month's leaders' meeting and the Canton Fair's scheduled 15 October opening. Strong exports may support the 4.5–5% growth target, but full-year growth and any new surplus record remain outcomes to be established by subsequent data.