Oil prices fell on November 2 as traders monitored diplomatic contacts between Iran and Qatar. VnExpress, citing Reuters, reported afternoon Brent prices down 3.2% at $109.8 a barrel and US WTI down 3.6% at $100.
Diplomacy against a volatile backdrop
The retreat followed Brent’s strongest month end level in six months. KCM Trade analyst Tim Waterer described a technical correction after a strong week, helped by hopes for diplomatic progress and the absence of further military escalation over the weekend.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on November 1 that continuing discussions were intended to maintain consultations with Qatar as mediator. Supply concerns remained, including attacks involving tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and pressure on oil infrastructure. OPEC and its allies kept their December production target unchanged.
Forecasts describe different possibilities
VNA/VietnamPlus separately reported that Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast from $90 to $105 a barrel and WTI from $81 to $94. Its average forecasts for 2027 rose to $88 for Brent and $78 for WTI.
The bank also outlined a more severe risk case. Brent could reach $140 and average around $130 in 2027 if Gulf production remained 3.5 million barrels a day below its 2025 average. Those conditional projections are different from observed November 2 trading prices.
Next, traders will assess further diplomatic developments, actual oil flows and the market response around the November 3 US midterm elections. Those factors will help determine whether the retreat is a temporary correction or reflects a more lasting change in expectations for supply disruption.