Export losses have reduced stocks
The IEA said global diesel exports fell by 700,000 barrels a day year on year in the previous month. Increased supplies elsewhere offset only part of the losses from Russia and the Middle East. The third-quarter contraction followed inventory declines greater than usual.
Even with a rapid refinery recovery before year-end, the agency expects supply to struggle to meet fourth-quarter demand. It therefore sees the rebuilding of lost inventories potentially extending into the second half of 2027. This is the agency's forecast under the conditions assessed, not an already observed shortage in a future year.
Prices and transport remain important variables
The article cited wholesale diesel prices above US$200 a barrel in Singapore in mid-September and around US$220 in Europe and the United States. Those are not Vietnamese retail pump prices. The IEA also warned that shipping pressures could raise delivered costs for major importing markets in the coming weeks.
For oil overall, the report forecast an average demand decline of 2.6 million barrels a day this year, with diesel accounting for a quarter of that reduction. Refinery output, inventories and actual export flows will be central to subsequent revisions, particularly if supply disruptions recur in the Gulf.