Vietnam’s ambition for double digit GDP growth requires more than a larger supply of bank loans, according to experts cited by VnExpress on November 2. Their discussions at the concluded Autumn Economic Forum 2026 centred on three connected constraints: raising capital, spending it effectively and improving productivity.
Financing beyond the banking system
Economist Can Van Luc estimated annual mobilisation needs at $280–300 billion, with total social investment equivalent to 40% of GDP. The estimate describes resources needed for a growth objective rather than funding already secured. State capital currently accounts for 20–22% of investment and could provide at most 30%, leaving a substantial role for domestic private businesses and overseas investors.
Bank credit supplies 51% of total capital, compared with roughly 13–14% from shares and corporate bonds. Luc recommended expanding capital markets and exploring green finance, carbon markets, digital asset management and remittances. FTSE Russell’s Wanming Du stressed the need for long term financing for infrastructure, advanced technology and energy transition.
Returns on investment matter
Vietnam’s incremental capital output ratio has remained above 6 over the past five years. Some Asian economies recorded ratios of 3–4 during rapid growth, meaning they required less investment for each additional unit of output. Luc proposed a move towards 4.5 and a better balance of public spending across infrastructure, science, education and health.
World Bank representative Mariam J. Sherman also highlighted low value added per manufacturing worker and the concentration of export employment in activities such as assembly. That makes skills and industrial upgrading central to the financing debate.
The practical next steps are stronger project selection, broader financing channels and productivity improvements. Those measures accompany the government’s proposed GDP growth target of at least 10% for 2027, alongside macroeconomic stability and inflation control.